中国组织工程研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (31): 4932-4936.doi: 10.12307/2023.692

• 数字化骨科 digital orthopedics • 上一篇    下一篇

以R软件建立老年髋部骨折术后输血Nomogram预测模型

牛  峰1, 苏保童2,陈榆林1, 谢亚娟1,许忆浪1,李  聪1,程志安3   

  1. 1广州中医药大学第二临床医学院,广东省广州市   510405;2南方医科大学中西医结合医院,广东省广州市   510000;3广东省中医院骨科,广东省广州市   510405
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-22 接受日期:2022-10-27 出版日期:2023-11-08 发布日期:2023-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 程志安,博士,主任医师,教授,广东省中医院骨科,广东省广州市 510405
  • 作者简介:牛峰,男,1995年生,安徽省界首市人,广州中医药大学在读硕士,主要从事老年骨质疏松骨折的防治研究。
  • 基金资助:
    2017年广州中医药大学2017年度“高水平大学建设”面上项目[广中医研(2018)10号],项目负责人:程志安

Establishment of Nomogram prediction model for postoperative blood transfusion in elderly hip fractures using R software

Niu Feng1, Su Baotong², Chen Yulin¹, Xie Yajuan¹, Xu Yilang¹, Li Cong¹, Cheng Zhian³   

  1. 1Second Clinical Medical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405, Guangdong Province, China; 2Hospital of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China; 3Department of Orthopedics, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405, Guangdong Province, China 
  • Received:2022-01-22 Accepted:2022-10-27 Online:2023-11-08 Published:2023-01-30
  • Contact: Cheng Zhian, MD, Chief physician, Professor, Department of Orthopedics, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405, Guangdong Province, China
  • About author:Niu Feng, Master candidate, Second Clinical Medical College of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510405, Guangdong Province, China
  • Supported by:
    2017 "High-Level University Construction" General Project of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, No. (2018)10 (to CZA) 

摘要:


文题释义:

老年髋部骨折:指65岁及以上的老年人群在股骨头边缘和小转子远端5 cm之内的髋关节周围发生的骨折,主要包括股骨颈骨折及股骨转子间骨折。
Nomogram预测模型:通过构建多因素回归模型,根据模型中各个影响因素对结局变量的贡献程度给每个影响因素的每个取值水平进行赋分,然后再将各个评分相加得到总评分,最后通过总评分与结局事件发生概率之间的函数转换关系,从而计算出该个体结局事件的预测值。Nomogram将复杂的回归方程转变为了可视化的图形,使预测模型的结果更具有可读性,方便对患者进行评估。

背景:随着人口逐渐进入老龄化,老年髋部骨折患者基数越来越大,髋部骨折术后输血十分常见,但有关输血的危险因素仍在争论中。
目的:构建评估老年髋部骨折术后异体红细胞输血发生风险的Nomogram预测模型。
方法:选择2016年6月至2020年6月在广东省中医院大德路总院进行手术治疗的392例老年髋部骨折患者作为研究对象,采用Lasso回归及多因素Logistic分析对于其危险因素进行筛选,并利用R软件建立Nomogram预测模型。

结果与结论:①Lasso回归及多变量Logistic回归分析表明年龄、手术时间、美国麻醉医师协会分级、高血压、术前贫血、术中失血量、骨折类型是老年髋部骨折术后输血的独立影响因素,基于这7个指标构建的预测模型曲线下面积为0.814;②临床决策曲线分析表明,该模型具有较好的临床实用性;③提示基于年龄、手术时间、美国麻醉医师协会分级、高血压、术前贫血、术中失血量、骨折类型这7个指标建立的预测模型对老年髋部骨折术后输血风险预测具有良好的效能,可为临床指导老年髋部骨折术后输血提供重要参考。

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4731-2330 (牛峰) 

中国组织工程研究杂志出版内容重点:人工关节;骨植入物;脊柱;骨折;内固定;数字化骨科;组织工程

关键词: 髋部骨折, 老年, 术后输血, 异体红细胞, 预测模型

Abstract: BACKGROUND: With the gradual aging of the population, the number of elderly patients with hip fractures is increasing. Blood transfusion is very common after hip fracture, but the risk factors of blood transfusion are still under debate.
OBJECTIVE: To construct a Nomogram prediction model for evaluating the risk of the allogeneic erythrocyte blood transfusion after hip fracture in elderly patients.
METHODS: From June 2016 to June 2020, 392 elderly patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment in the Dade Road General Hospital of Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine were selected as the research objects. Lasso regression and multivariate Logistic analysis were used to determine the risk factors and R software was utilized to build Nomogram prediction model. 
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (1) Lasso regression and multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age, operation time, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, hypertension, preoperative anemia, intraoperative blood loss, and fracture type were independent influencing factors of postoperative blood transfusion in elderly hip fractures. The area under the curve of the prediction model constructed by the seven indicators was 0.814. (2) Clinical decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical utility. (3) It is concluded that the prediction model established based on seven indicators of age, operation time, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, hypertension, preoperative anemia, intraoperative blood loss, and fracture type has good performance in predicting the risk of blood transfusion after hip fracture in the elderly, and can provide an important reference for guiding postoperative blood transfusion in elderly hip fractures. 

Key words: hip fracture, elderly, postoperative blood transfusion, allogeneic erythrocyte, prediction model

中图分类号: