Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research ›› 2021, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (27): 4300-4306.doi: 10.12307/2021.186
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Chen Chaofeng, Shi Yuxiong, Liang Jincheng, He Zhijun, He Dadong
Received:
2020-10-19
Revised:
2020-10-22
Accepted:
2020-11-19
Online:
2021-09-28
Published:
2021-04-10
Contact:
Chen Chaofeng, Department of Osteoarthritis, Panyu Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China
About author:
Chen Chaofeng, Associate chief physician, Department of Osteoarthritis, Panyu Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong Province, China
Supported by:
CLC Number:
Chen Chaofeng, Shi Yuxiong, Liang Jincheng, He Zhijun, He Dadong. Prediction algorithm of hospitalization duration after total knee arthroplasty based on machine learning[J]. Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research, 2021, 25(27): 4300-4306.
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2.2 患者住院时长变化 所有全膝关节置换患者的平均住院时长为(5.8±4.6) d,中位住院时长为4 d,75%分位数为6 d。这个结果与既往研究报道的数据接近[6, 16],因此文章选取住院时长为6 d作为分界线。住院时长≤6 d的患者作为正常 组,> 6 d的患者作为延期组。 2.3 不同住院时长的患者的临床资料比较 共纳入777个样本数,其中包括618例住院时长≤6 d的患者和159例住院时 长 > 6 d的患者。正常组与延期组患者间的住院时长差异,见表1。延期组的平均年龄为(68.51±8.51)岁,正常组的平均年龄为(65.71±8.21)岁;两组的性别、体质量指数、ASA评分、麻醉方式、手术时长、吸烟史、阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停病史、充血性心力衰竭病史和胰岛素使用情况比较均无显著差异;而在年龄、术前血红蛋白、手术方式、糖尿病病史、缺血性心脏病病史、脑血管疾病史和输血情况方面差异有显著性意义(P < 0.05)。"
2.4 机器学习模型的评估与比较 为了选择用于预测结局指标的高性能模型,作者通过表1的临床资料分别构建模型并计算了7个模型的AUC值、正确率、灵敏度、特异度、精度和平衡F分数,获得每个训练集模型的最佳参数,通过验证集对预测模型进行验证(验证集数据通过10倍交叉验证法获得)。 逻辑回归分析、多元自适应回归、K近邻法、支持向量机、随机森林、极限梯度提升、人工神经网络的AUC值分别为0.770,0.778,0.609,0.570,0.594,0.586和0.903。总体而言,人工神经网络的AUC值在所有模型中最高,第2,3位分别为逻辑回归分析和多元自适应回归,这可能与数据集符合线性逻辑关系有关。而K近邻法、支持向量机、随机森林、极限梯度提升表现较差,AUC值在0.6附近,见表2。 此外,作者使用正确率、灵敏度、特异度、精度和F1比较了这7个机器学习模型的性能,见表2,3。"
人工神经网络的AUC值高于其他组,同时具有最高的正确率(0.846)、特异度(1)、精度(1)和平衡F分数(0.727);多元自适应回归主要用于处理高维度(待回归因素较多的数据集)回归问题,而文章的纳入因素较多,符合多元自适应回归的适用性范围,因此多元自适应回归的所有检验指标相较于逻辑回归分析提高;虽然逻辑回归分析具有较高的AUC值和正确率,但是其灵敏度和平衡F分数较低,对住院时长延长患者的识别能力较差;而支持向量机和随机森林的灵敏度和AUC值较低,其识别能力和诊断准确性低。K近邻法和极限梯度提升的精度和AUC值较低,其精确性和诊断准确性不足。通过绘制ROC曲线,见图2,可见人工神经网络的线下面积最大。因此,就该结果来看,人工神经网络算法的表现优于其他算法。 "
2.5 神经网络中与住院时长相关的特征重要性因子 人工神经网络可以对每1个输入变量进行特异性修正以达到预测的目的,通过Garson的算法建立人工神经网络模型,作者得到文章各个预测变量的重要性权重,并且将该重要性与最大指标值比对,获得标准化的重要性权重数据。从图3中可以看到手术时长和年龄在预测变量中的重要性最高,领先其他预测变量,而心力衰竭病史、心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病、手术方式、血红蛋白、输血情况、胰岛素使用情况、糖尿病病史和阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停等因素重要性较前两者低,仍为高相关性的预测变量。在表1的临床资料分析中,手术时长和心衰未见明显统计学差异,但在神经网络中,手术时长和心衰的特征重要性较高,是区分结局指标的重要变量。可见,人工神经网络的建模属性与权重方式之间不是简单的线性关系。而通过Garson的算法,发掘模型相关因素的权重与结局指标相关性的相对大小,这有利于临床工作者更好地理解人工神经网络。 "
2.7 具体病例相关因素的热图分析 图5展示了具体患者的相关因素分层,图中上方横纵为两类结局事件(延长出院和常规事件出院),下方横轴为具体病例(第273-276例患者)。其中273例和274例患者为延长出院患者,275和276例为常规时间出院患者。在该例中,在左侧方框中,年龄大于66岁以蓝色表示,证明高龄与延长出院呈正相关关系。而在第3列中,非联合麻醉与住院时长呈现负相关,因此为了缩短住院时长,在考虑患者基本情况前提下,尽量选择单独的麻醉方式。体质量指数越高,患者延长出院的风险越低,这可能与患者的营养情况和血容量相关。而当手术时间少于 65 min时,患者的住院时长延长的风险下降。出现需要输血的情况,患者的延长住院时间的风险也相应增加。而复杂的手术方式也会增加患者住院时间的风险,这张图可以帮助临床医生理解神经网络如何进行预测。 同时图5可以帮助作者通过神经网络预测患者的重点结局(例如,因为患者高龄、麻醉评分高、体质量指数低,因此术中应该在保证手术质量的基础上尽快完成手术,减少术中失血;同时麻醉也应该以简单的单一麻醉为主,尽量减少使用联合麻醉),这些都是在整个临床决策过程中至关重要的变量。"
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